Fares are up, and flights are being cut. But South Africans are still travelling – here’s how to do it without getting burned.
Despite fares rising by between 10% and 50% on many routes, only 10% of South African travellers have cancelled their holiday plans, according to a survey conducted by the Association of Southern African Travel Agents and Advisors (ASATA). That says everything about the South African traveller’s relationship with travel. But absorbing a crisis and navigating it intelligently are two very different things.
“The fuel crisis is real, and, in some cases, the cost increases are significant, but South Africans are still travelling,” says Sue Garrett, GM Supply, Pricing & Marketing at Flight Centre South Africa. “Our job is to help them do it smartly.”
Here’s what you actually need to know before your next booking decision.
What’s driving the price increases?
Jet fuel more than doubled in price between late February and early April 2026, following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil supply. The Middle East accounts for roughly 41% of European aviation fuel imports, and that supply has been severely disrupted.
The knock-on effects have been significant: 13,000 flights cut globally in May alone, nearly two million seats removed from the market, and Lufthansa announcing 20,000 cancellations through October. Closer to home, jet fuel at South African inland airports jumped 115% month-on-month as of 1 April, with coastal airports up 145%, and FlySafair’s temporary fuel surcharges rose nearly 400% in March.
A recent dip in global oil prices followed ceasefire talks, but experts are clear: even if the Strait fully reopens, it will take months for pricing to normalise. The fuel arriving at South African ports today was purchased at higher prices, so relief, when it comes, will be slow.
Should you wait, or book now?
Book now – and here’s why.
Capacity is being removed from the market while South African demand remains high. Less supply plus sustained demand points in one direction only: higher fares. The travellers waiting for clarity are, in most cases, waiting for prices to rise.
The good news? You can lock in today’s fares for travel up to 12 months out. For peak-season travel (school holidays and long weekends), Garrett says that booking four to six months in advance is advisable, as seats fill quickly.
“From a currency perspective, the rand is currently sitting at around R16.34* to the dollar, which is meaningfully stronger than the R17–R18 range South Africans were navigating for much of the past two years. That makes now a relatively favourable moment to lock in international fares. Waiting for a better rate is a gamble, and fare increases could easily outpace any rand strengthening,” Garrett explains.
One important note from Flight Centre’s Travel Experts: quote and ticket on the same day, particularly on international routes. Fares can shift between quote and purchase, and in the current environment, that gap can be costly.
Where is the value right now?
Surprisingly, some of the most competitive fares currently available are on routes that travellers might be avoiding out of lingering uncertainty.
Emirates has confirmed that 96% of its global network has been restored, and Qatar Airways is targeting more than 150 destinations from mid-June. Both carriers are currently offering fares that, on certain routes, are lower than pre-conflict February levels – in some cases, over 60% cheaper than non-Gulf alternatives on the same routes.
According to Garrett, for long-haul travel, Asia is currently the most competitively priced destination, with fares ranging from approximately R11,000 to R15,000 per person return, making countries like Thailand and India consistent value picks despite the broader disruption.
“Carrier selection has become one of the most important conversations we’re having with clients right now,” she says. “South African travellers who are still defaulting to non-Gulf alternatives out of lingering uncertainty are, in many cases, paying a significant premium for a risk that has materially diminished.”
The surcharge conversation nobody is having
When you see an advertised fare, it rarely tells the full story. Fuel surcharges appear on your ticket as YQ (fuel surcharge) or YR (carrier-imposed charges), and on some international routes, these charges alone exceed the base fare.
Surcharges are proportionally higher on longer flights, which means domestic and regional African travel is currently meaningfully more affordable relative to long-haul, simply because the surcharge component is smaller.
“The critical thing to know is that surcharges are fixed at the date of ticketing, not the date of travel. If you book today, you are protected against any future surcharge increases – unless you change your ticket – another compelling reason not to wait,” Garrett comments.
“Always compare the total ticket cost, not the advertised price. What looks like a cheap fare can carry a surcharge that significantly changes the picture,” she adds.
Flexible fares: worth it or not?
With 57% of South African travellers worried about losing money on non-refundable bookings, the flexible fare question is front of mind, and rightly so.
A flexible fare will typically cost R3,000–R8,000 more than the cheapest standard economy fare on the same route, depending on the airline and season. Whether that premium is worth it depends on your circumstances, but in an environment where airlines are cutting flights and adjusting schedules, the cost of inflexibility has rarely been more visible.
There is, however, a middle path worth knowing about. Emirates and Qatar Airways are currently offering complimentary date-change options on new bookings – a direct response to the uncertainty of the current environment. In practice, this typically means one or two permitted changes, with restrictions around ticketing and travel dates, and you would still pay any fare difference if the new fare were higher. The specifics vary and are changing frequently, so confirm the exact terms at the time of booking.
Travel insurance: the detail that matters most
Approximately 20% of South African travellers are now actively opting for “Cancel for Any Reason” (CFAR) insurance, even at a premium. If you’re considering it, there’s one rule that overrides everything else, according to Flight Centre’s Travel Experts:
Buy your travel insurance on the same day you pay your first deposit.
Pre-existing condition waivers and CFAR cover typically expire within 14 to 21 days of deposit. Miss that window and you may find yourself with a standard policy that doesn’t cover the scenarios you’re most concerned about.
“CFAR is an add-on to a comprehensive travel insurance policy, not a standalone product. It allows you to cancel for any reason and receive a partial reimbursement – typically 50–75% of pre-paid, non-refundable trip costs, which significantly reduces your exposure,” Garrett explains.
The case for not going it alone
“Travellers no longer want to navigate the current landscape alone,” says Otto de Vries, CEO of ASATA. “They want a professional in their corner who can guarantee flexibility and provide a safety net. No app or online booking platform can call an airline at midnight, fight for a refund, or redesign an itinerary in real time.”
Flight Centre’s own research, conducted before the conflict began, found that 97% of South African travel intenders see value in using a travel agent – the highest proportion of any market surveyed globally. In a Middle East crisis that has doubled jet fuel prices and made the cost of a wrong booking decision more consequential than ever, that instinct is well-founded.
South Africans haven’t stopped travelling, but the gap between travelling smart and travelling blind has rarely been wider.
*Based on ZAR/USD exchange rates on 25 May 2026.
