When Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana tabled the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement in October, El Niño earned more than a passing mention. He listed it among the risks to South Africa’s fiscal outlook and moved R10bn of the in-year revenue overrun into the contingency reserve for the El Niño response and other risks, warning that its likely impact on agricultural costs and output from late 2026 into 2027 could further weaken domestic growth.
Plenty has been written about what El Niño means for holidaymakers. Far less has been said about corporates whose people need to keep moving, particularly in mining, agriculture, construction and energy, where work often takes travellers to remote areas with little infrastructure to cushion the impact of extreme weather.
“For our clients, travel is part of how the work gets done, so it can’t simply stop when the weather turns,” says Mummy Mafojane, GM of FCM Travel South Africa. “Climate change is making itself felt, and disruption management is now part and parcel of running a travel programme.”
Why it matters
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center now rates a super El Niño as the most likely scenario between October 2026 and February 2027. Only three previous events have reached that intensity: 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16.
Closer to home, the SA Weather Service expects heatwaves to occur more often if the forecast below-normal rainfall materialises and says they could be severe. Elsewhere, the pattern changes. East Africa and the Horn of Africa are forecast to see above-average rainfall from October to December, while Central America, India and Australia have been flagged as regions of concern for drought and heat. The peak period also overlaps with the January return to work and a busy first-quarter events calendar.
Business travellers are already feeling the effects of more volatile weather. Healix’s Risk Radar Report found that while cyber threats (53%), supply chain disruption (37%) and geopolitical tensions (34%) topped the list of risks facing organisations in 2026, climate disruption (29%) was not far behind, and severe weather is now a primary concern for travel managers.
When the power and water go
Heat and drought put extra strain on infrastructure that is already stretched. Higher demand and lower dam levels can lead to water shortages, even in major cities, while countries that rely heavily on hydropower may face extended power cuts. Where heavy rain is forecast instead, roads can be cut off with little warning, and flooding raises the risk of waterborne and mosquito-borne diseases.
For a traveller, that could mean no air conditioning after hours outdoors, or no water for a shower before a client meeting.
“If you have travellers heading to destinations where higher temperatures are forecast, check in with your hotel partners now,” says Mafojane. “Do they have air conditioning? Do their generators run the air conditioning or only the lights? Is there water storage or a borehole? Outside the major cities, the answers vary widely, and a traveller shouldn’t be finding out at check-in.”
The heat factor
Heat stress is a genuine risk for anyone spending long hours on site, and it also affects how well people work. Research cited in a 2023 study in Frontiers in Physiology found that complex task performance dropped by 16% in hot conditions and by 36% when participants were also mentally fatigued, a fair description of someone who has just stepped off a long-haul flight. The body adapts after a few days of exposure, but most business trips are too short for that, especially for colleagues flying in from a northern hemisphere winter.
Delays and keeping travellers informed
Flights feel the heat too. Hot air is thinner, which makes it harder for aircraft to take off, and high-altitude airports are affected at lower temperatures. On the hottest days, airlines may need to reduce cargo, carry less fuel or ask passengers to take a later flight. This is already happening in the region. In October, temperatures of 37°C forced an Airlink flight from Maun to Cape Town to reduce its payload to stay within weight and performance limits, and passengers landed without their luggage. A dry summer doesn’t rule out storms either. On the Highveld, extreme heat often builds into afternoon thunderstorms with hail and sudden downpours.
“When a flight is delayed or bags don’t arrive, the hardest part for travellers is not knowing what happens next,” says Mafojane. “Real-time alerts and someone who can rebook them before the queue builds at the airline counter make a big difference. Flexible fares on critical trips and buffer time around important meetings help too.”
How travel programmes can support travellers
As Mafojane explains, much of the most useful support happens before anyone leaves home.
Book with the weather in mind. Morning flights avoid the hottest part of the day, when aircraft performance is most affected, and on the Highveld they also tend to beat the afternoon storms. Scheduling outdoor work for the cooler early hours makes a similar difference on the ground.
Make hotel checks standard. Questions about backup power, water storage and air conditioning belong in the preferred hotel programme, so the answers are on file before a booking is made.
Brief travellers properly. A destination briefing should now cover the local weather outlook, the water and power situation, the signs of heat exhaustion and where the nearest medical facility is.
Know who is most at risk. Duty of care extends to every employee, and some are more vulnerable to heat than others, including older travellers and those with pre-existing health conditions. A short conversation before the trip can identify who might need extra support.
Check the insurance Ts&Cs. Corporate policies differ from retail policies, so it’s always worth confirming exactly what your cover includes when it comes to weather-related disruption.
Stay in touch during the trip. Travellers stranded by extreme weather can face communication breakdowns, limited access to medical care and supply shortages, which in turn fuel anxiety, fatigue and poor decision-making. Traveller tracking and regular check-ins mean help can reach them quickly.
Keep bookings inside the programme. “In a disruption, people understandably grab the first available seat or room,” says Mafojane. “But once a booking sits outside the programme, we can’t see it, and that’s exactly when travellers are most likely to need help. A quick call to your travel management company usually gets you rebooked just as fast, without losing that safety net.”
Beyond the headlines
“Coverage of extreme weather tends to be dramatic and broad,” says Mafojane. “But a heatwave in Zambia doesn’t mean hotels are without power, and a wet season in East Africa doesn’t mean every road is closed. Travellers need to know what’s happening in their destination, not what’s trending on social media. FCM’s global network means we can draw on local partners for accurate destination information, and 24/7 travel support means we can step in the moment we’re needed.”
