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JOHANNESBURG – FCM is urging South African corporate travel managers to act immediately to secure seats and lock in flexible fares, as the Middle East conflict triggers a severe capacity squeeze and unprecedented price volatility on key international and local routes.
With more than 30,000 flights cancelled globally since 28 February, the disruption has landed hard on South African businesses. Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad – historically the backbone of long-haul corporate travel from South Africa – have seen ticket volumes collapse by 56% since the crisis broke. Qatar Airways has been the worst-affected, with ticket sales down 77%.
The knock-on effect has been immediate. As corporates scramble to rebook on alternative carriers, seat availability has evaporated and fares have surged. In some cases, FCM consultants have watched business class fares to Europe breach R200,000, and climb further within hours.
“The volatility is unlike anything we’ve seen in recent memory,” said Jaco Brits, Head of Sales and Account Management at FCM South Africa. “We’re quoting a fare, and by the time approval comes back, the price has moved significantly. Seats that existed in the morning are gone by the afternoon.”
Where the volume is going
FCM’s booking data reveals a significant shift in how South African corporates are reaching Europe and Asia. Ethiopian Airlines has emerged as the biggest single beneficiary, with ticket volumes up 21% and revenue up 29% as Addis Ababa becomes the most practical Africa-to-Europe and Africa-to-Asia connection that avoids closed airspace entirely.
European carriers are absorbing significant overflow, with Lufthansa recording a 92% increase in tickets booked and 74% revenue growth from FCM customers. British Airways is up 34% in tickets and 57% in revenue, while Air France has seen a 64% ticket increase and 89% revenue uplift. The message is clear: the shift to these carriers comes with a significant price premium.
Asia-Pacific carriers are seeing the steepest growth from a smaller base. Singapore Airlines is up 120% in tickets and a remarkable 228% in revenue, with Cathay Pacific up 159% in tickets and 147% in revenue, which shows that Asia-bound corporate traffic is being structurally rerouted away from Gulf hubs.
“Corporates are finding ways to keep travelling, but the cost of doing so has fundamentally changed,” said Mummy Mafojane, General Manager of FCM South Africa. “Travel programmes built around Gulf hub connectivity are now exposed. The capacity simply isn’t there on alternative carriers to absorb this volume at pre-crisis prices.”
The death of the cheap, inflexible ticket
One of the most significant behavioural shifts FCM is observing is a move away from non-refundable, non-changeable economy fares. Where corporate bookers once defaulted to the cheapest available option, the current environment is forcing a rethink.
“We’re seeing customers who would never have considered a flexible fare now actively requesting them,” Brits said. “When economy class on an alternative carrier is sold out and the only available option is premium or business, a non-refundable ticket on a disrupted routing becomes a liability, not a saving.”
In several cases, FCM has seen travel managers decline trips altogether when requoted fares exceed policy thresholds, a dynamic that raises its own strategic concern for businesses with time-sensitive international commitments.
The advice from FCM is unambiguous: secure flexible fares now, book and pay in full, and do not wait for the situation to stabilise.
Not all travel is being rerouted, some is simply disappearing
Perhaps the most telling data point in FCM’s analysis is what is happening to travel destined specifically for the Middle East. Post-crisis, that number plummeted by 96%. Crucially, FCM’s data analysts note that roughly half of this “lost” UAE volume was not rerouted onto substitute carriers. It simply disappeared, indicating outright trip cancellations.
“That tells you something important,” Mafojane said. “For some businesses, the combination of cost, complexity, and regional uncertainty has made travel unviable for now. When a company chooses to cancel a trip rather than rebook, that is a direct hit to business operations and deal-making. Companies need to be having these conversations at a strategic, executive level, not just at the travel desk.”
What SA travel managers must do now
FCM is urging South African travel managers to take three immediate actions:
- Review budgets now. Travel programmes built before February are no longer financially valid on routes touching Europe, the Middle East, or Asia. Budget holders need to be briefed urgently on the scale of potential overspends.
- Audit flexible fare and premium cabin policies. If your policy does not allow for premium cabin approval when economy is unavailable, you are creating a situation where critical business travel gets cancelled by default.
- Check your insurance coverage. Most large South African corporates carry global insurance policies or bank-backed travel cover. These need to be urgently reviewed for war exclusions that may now apply to routes through the affected region.
“The businesses that will navigate this best are the ones that act now, not the ones waiting for Gulf hub operations to normalise,” Mafojane said. “A prolonged recovery is the most likely scenario. Build your travel programme around that reality.”
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For more information about FCM Travel call Sonnette Fourie on 081 072 2869 or email sonnette@bigambitions.co.za.
About FCM Travel:
FCM Travel, the flagship corporate travel brand at Flight Centre Travel Group (FCTG), is the business travel partner of choice for large national, multinational and global corporations. We are an award-winning global corporate travel management company ranking as one of the top five by size around the world. We operate a global network which spans more than 100 countries, employing over 6000 people.
FCM are transforming the business of travel through our empowered and accountable people who deliver 24/7 service and are available either online or offline. Leveraging FCM’s negotiating strength and supplier relationships in conjunction with our tailored business travel programs, our expertise delivers more for our clients where it matters most to them.
Visit us at www.fcmtravel.co.za
Issued by: Big Ambitions
Contact: Sonnette Fourie
Tel: +27 81 072 2869
Email: sonnette@bigambitions.co.za
